ATP Cincinnati Predictions

If last week’s tournament in Montreal taught us anything, it’s that predicting the outcome of ATP matches is a fool’s errand.  With that in mind, let’s see what the draw has in store for us in Cinci!

The draw this week is what the Master’s series is all about.  With the exception of a couple of late withdrawals (Tsonga?) that may yet come down the pike, nearly every top player in the men’s game is in Cincinnati.  Andy Roddick is trying to return from injury; David Ferrer makes his summer hard-court debut, and we’re already set for a Federer/del Potro showdown in the second round.

Del Potro’s mere presence makes every tournament a little more interesting.  He’s laid a couple of eggs recently, losing to Gulbis and Cilic, but he tore up the spring hard court circuit and lost only to the best of the best on clay.  My ranking system still gives him a lot of respect, keeping him within the top five, which makes Federer’s route to the semifinals (heck, the third round!) look particularly challenging.

Djokovic (who, once again, is in Fed’s half) could face a slew of Americans on their home turf.  His probable second-round opponent is Ryan Harrison, who I favor heavily over Juan Ignacio Chela.  After that, it’s easy to see John Isner in the third round, and possibly Andy Roddick in the quarters.  It’s theoretically possible, but a little less likely that another American, James Blake, will make it through the semis to be Novak’s opponent in that round.

Here is my full projection.  For purity’s sake, it doesn’t reflect the results of today’s two matches, in which Delpo and Blake both advanced.

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          100.0%  90.1%  74.4%    29.61%  
(WC)Ryan Harrison           71.5%   8.6%   3.2%     0.07%  
Juan Ignacio Chela          28.5%   1.3%   0.3%     0.00%  
(q)Radek Stepanek           43.6%  18.2%   3.0%     0.09%  
John Isner                  56.4%  24.7%   5.0%     0.24%  
Andrey Golubev              23.2%   8.4%   1.0%     0.02%  
(16)Stanislas Wawrinka      76.8%  48.7%  13.0%     1.41%  

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(11)Andy Roddick            63.7%  43.3%  23.0%     1.34%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber       36.3%  20.8%   9.1%     0.24%  
Juan Carlos Ferrero         23.9%   4.3%   0.9%     0.00%  
Feliciano Lopez             76.1%  31.6%  13.3%     0.29%  
Ivan Dodig                  39.4%  10.9%   3.9%     0.05%  
(q)Ernests Gulbis           60.6%  24.3%  11.6%     0.32%  
(6)Gael Monfils            100.0%  64.9%  38.2%     2.22%  

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(3)Roger Federer           100.0%  58.9%  44.5%    10.38%  
Juan Martin del Potro       82.9%  38.8%  27.9%     5.00%  
Andreas Seppi               17.1%   2.4%   0.8%     0.01%  
(WC)James Blake             23.3%   8.1%   1.1%     0.01%  
Marcos Baghdatis            76.7%  46.2%  15.2%     1.02%  
Fabio Fognini               26.1%   7.6%   0.9%     0.01%  
(14)Viktor Troicki          73.9%  38.1%   9.6%     0.40%  

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(9)Nicolas Almagro          62.0%  32.1%  14.0%     0.25%  
Albert Montanes             38.0%  13.8%   4.0%     0.03%  
Ivo Karlovic                32.6%  14.0%   4.6%     0.04%  
Florian Mayer               67.4%  40.2%  18.2%     0.56%  
Tommy Haas                  13.2%   0.8%   0.1%     0.00%  
Juan Monaco                 86.8%  28.8%  13.9%     0.21%  
(8)Tomas Berdych           100.0%  70.4%  45.3%     2.43%  

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(5)David Ferrer            100.0%  75.5%  44.7%     2.52%  
(q)Marsel Ilhan             38.3%   7.5%   1.9%     0.00%  
(WC)Grigor Dimitrov         61.7%  17.0%   6.0%     0.05%  
Janko Tipsarevic            70.3%  31.7%  15.3%     0.43%  
(q)Edouard Roger-Vasselin   29.7%   8.2%   2.2%     0.01%  
Jurgen Melzer               44.2%  25.0%  12.0%     0.35%  
(10)Gilles Simon            55.8%  35.2%  17.9%     0.72%  

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(15)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      57.2%  46.4%  19.8%     2.28%  
Marin Cilic                 42.8%  32.7%  12.2%     0.85%  
(q)Alex Bogomolov Jr        57.7%  13.7%   3.0%     0.04%  
(WC)Robby Ginepri           42.3%   7.2%   1.1%     0.01%  
(q)Kei Nishikori            46.5%  10.6%   4.5%     0.14%  
David Nalbandian            53.5%  13.1%   5.9%     0.27%  
(4)Andy Murray             100.0%  76.3%  53.6%    10.62%  

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(7)Mardy Fish              100.0%  63.6%  42.6%     3.59%  
Nikolay Davydenko           68.5%  28.8%  16.7%     0.99%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky           31.5%   7.6%   3.0%     0.04%  
Xavier Malisse              55.4%  21.5%   6.7%     0.11%  
Kevin Anderson              44.6%  15.4%   4.5%     0.04%  
Alexandr Dolgopolov         47.8%  29.6%  12.4%     0.39%  
(12)Richard Gasquet         52.2%  33.4%  14.0%     0.52%  

Player                        R32    R16     QF         W  
(13)Mikhail Youzhny         54.6%  28.3%   7.7%     0.41%  
Michael Llodra              45.4%  20.5%   4.9%     0.17%  
Thomaz Bellucci             36.9%  15.1%   3.1%     0.05%  
Fernando Verdasco           63.1%  36.0%  10.4%     0.61%  
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez      60.5%  13.3%   6.3%     0.19%  
(q)Julien Benneteau         39.5%   4.9%   1.8%     0.03%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            100.0%  81.8%  65.8%    18.36%
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