Category Archives: Rome

Rome Projections: Final 16

It’s tricky to do these at the beginning of tournaments this time of year — the first round is underway before the final of the previous event is over, and before the qualifying event is completed. But the schedule does tighten up later in the week, so it makes sense to run projections before the round of 16, all of those matches are set and none have been played.

I would make my usual comment about my system underrating Nadal’s dominance, but Rafa did lose a set today to Paolo Lorenzi. I don’t think Rafa will lose before the final, but it does put things in perspective a bit.

Player                    QF    SF     F     W 
(1)Rafael Nadal        83.3% 69.2% 47.9% 31.1% 
Feliciano Lopez        16.7%  7.8%  2.4%  0.7% 
(11)Mardy Fish         47.9% 11.0%  3.6%  1.1% 
Marin Cilic            52.1% 12.1%  4.0%  1.1% 
(3)Roger Federer       80.6% 60.8% 31.1% 17.3% 
(16)Richard Gasquet    19.4%  8.9%  2.1%  0.5% 
(LL)Jarkko Nieminen    22.5%  2.8%  0.3%  0.0% 
(7)Tomas Berdych       77.5% 27.6%  8.5%  3.0%
 
Player                    QF    SF     F     W
Florian Mayer          70.4% 21.6%  4.5%  0.9% 
Juan Ignacio Chela     29.6%  4.8%  0.5%  0.1% 
Potito Starace         11.4%  3.9%  0.4%  0.0% 
(4)Andy Murray         88.6% 69.8% 29.4% 11.9% 
(5)Robin Soderling     62.7% 23.6% 13.6%  5.3% 
(9)Nicolas Almagro     37.3%  9.2%  4.1%  1.1% 
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka 18.5%  7.7%  3.4%  0.9% 
(2)Novak Djokovic      81.5% 59.4% 44.0% 25.0%

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