Category Archives: Ivo Karlovic

Harrison’s Luck, Karlovic’s Danger, and Vesely’s Prep

When Ryan Harrison drew Rafael Nadal in the first round of the US Open, the reaction in the twitterverse was instantaneous and unanimous. A guy with horrible luck in Grand Slam draws just saw his luck get even worse.

Certainly, drawing one of the big four (or big seven?) means an almost guaranteed early exit.  Harrison could’ve drawn a seed ranked much-lower, or better yet, one of the many anonymous characters required to fill up the 128-man field.

But has Ryan’s luck really been that bad?  In his previous twelve Slam appearances, Harrison has drawn a seed six times in the first time.  (An unseeded player has a one-in-three chance of pulling a seed, so he “should” have faced four seeds instead.)  Only one of those was a member of the big four–Andy Murray at the 2012 Australian–and two of them have been seeded 27th or worse.

The real complaint for Harrison’s supporters has been his second round draws.  In Melbourne this year and Wimbledon last year, he faced Novak Djokovic in the second round. One year ago in Flushing, his R64 opponent was Juan Martin del Potro.

Alright–that’s pretty bad luck.  But keep in mind that any unseeded player is very likely to face a seed in one of the first two rounds.  Harrison lucked into a slightly fortunate draw at Roland Garros this year, drawing Andrey Kuznetsov in the first then 19th-seeded John Isner in the second.

And of course, lucky or unlucky, there’s the question of whether Harrison is likely to beat anyone at a Grand Slam right now.  Ranked 97th, he’s one of the weakest players in the draw.  Given a luckier draw, there still wouldn’t be much hope that he would take advantage.

Yesterday Ivo Karlovic qualified for the US Open main draw, and again the twitterverse responded unanimously.  To paraphrase everyone: “He’s a dangerous floater. No one wants to see him in the first round.”

I can’t speak to the psychological preferences of players, so maybe that’s right–maybe no one wants to see him in their section. But at this point in his career, there’s little reason to fear Dr. Ivo.

In fact, I wrote about this specific issue almost two years ago: “Karlovic has shown himself far less likely than the average player to perform above or below his ranking.”

Aside from a victory over Kevin Anderson in the thin air of Bogota and two wins by retirement, the highest-ranked player Karlovic has beaten in the last year was (then) #40 Grigor Dimitrov in Zagreb–indoors. He hasn’t scored a complete-match win against a top-20 player since he played Kei Nishikori in Davis Cup 18 months ago.

It’s true, Karlovic has a very good chance of advancing past James Blake in his first main draw match.  But that says more about the 33-year-old Blake than it does about Ivo.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman was so close to qualifying.  In yesterday’s final round, he took the first set from Albano Olivetti.  He saved a break in the third, went up a break for 4-2, but couldn’t close it out.

It would’ve been a remarkable achivement for the newly-minted 21-year-old.  He has built his ranking up to 131 entirely on the back of clay-court challengers.  In fact, he had played only eight career hard-court matches before this week, winning just two–both against fellow clay specialists in Melbourne qualifying this year.

For all that, Schwartzman would not have been the main draw contender with the least hard-court preparation this year!  That honor goes to Jiri Vesely, the 20-year-old Czech, who has not played a hard-court match since the Sarajevo (ice-rink) Challenger in March.

These two youngters’ routes to success reveal an interesting quirk of the ATP schedule.  While clay-court events are a distinct minority at tour level, they make up a slight majority among Challengers.  Furthermore, it is easier to fill out a minor-league schedule with clay events because of the dearth of hard-court options in April and May.  For instance, in the ten-week span this year from 22 April to 1 July, there were only four hard-court challengers–in Johannesburg, Kun-Ming, Karshi, and Busan.

For his part, Vesely has had an outstanding season.  In March, he was ranked outside the top 200.  After three Challenger titles (and two more finals, with losses to Radek Stepanek and Florian Mayer), he sits comfortably inside the top 100, with no need to qualify in New York.

Despite his scheduling choices, Vesely isn’t hopeless on hard courts.  Two years ago, he reached the final in the US Open junior tournament and won in Melbourne.

For his first match on the surface in months, the youngster got a manageable first-round opponent in Denis Kudla.  The winner of that battle of counterpunching youngsters will likely go no further, thanks to a second-round date with Tomas Berdych.

Finally, my draw forecasts are up for both singles main draws. Men are here, and women are here.  With a little luck, they’ll update hourly throughout the tournament.

Leave a comment

Filed under Ivo Karlovic, Jiri Vesely, Ryan Harrison, U.S. Open

Daniel Brands and Ace Records in Context

In the Vienna round of 16 last week, Juan Martin Del Potro beat Daniel Brands in a three-set, three-tiebreak match.  The courts are fast, Delpo serves big, and apparently Brands has quite the weapon of his own, as both players hit at least 30 aces.  Brands hit 32.

We can’t help but be impressed at the sheer numbers.  As it turns out, it’s an ATP first, at least since 1991, when the ATP started keeping such stats.  Never before had both players hit at least 30 aces in a three-set match.

Here are the top nine matches in the ATP record books, in which both servers reached a certain ace milestone:

minAces  Winner                 Loser              Year  Event               Surface  Score                 wAces  lAces  
30       Juan Martin Del Potro  Daniel Brands      2012  Vienna              Hard     6-7(5) 7-6(4) 7-6(6)     30     32  
29       John Isner             Gilles Muller      2010  Atlanta             Hard     4-6 7-6(6) 7-6(7)        33     29  
28       Andrei Pavel           Gregory Carraz     2005  Milan               Carpet   7-6(0) 6-7(5) 7-6(3)     28     33  
25       Greg Rusedski          Joachim Johansson  2004  Moscow              Carpet   7-6(5) 6-7(1) 7-6(7)     25     26  
25       Arnaud Clement         Thomas Johansson   2008  Cincinnati Masters  Hard     7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-3        25     28  
24       Mark Philippoussis     Greg Rusedski      2002  Queen's Club        Grass    6-7(1) 7-6(3) 7-6(5)     25     24  
24       Joachim Johansson      Kristof Vliegen    2006  Stockholm           Hard     6-7(5) 7-6(5) 7-6(7)     24     24  
24       Andy Roddick           Ivo Karlovic       2009  Queen's Club        Grass    7-6(4) 7-6(5)            24     26  
24       Richard Gasquet        Joachim Johansson  2009  Kuala Lumpur        Hard     4-6 7-6(1) 6-2           26     24

(There are several matches in which both players hit 23, including two on clay, both from 2011: Isner/Karlovic in Houston, and Federer/Feliciano Lopez in Madrid.  Both went to three tiebreaks.)

Aces in a losing effort

Even independent of Del Potro’s 30 aces, it stands out that Brands racked up 32 aces in a best-of-three losing effort.  But that’s not a record–it ties him for 16th of all time with several others, including Sam Querrey, Milos Raonic, Ivo Karlovic, and Goran Ivanisevic, who did it twice.

Mardy Fish may not be proud of this record, but he simply blows away the rest of the field, having served past the eminently ace-able Olivier Rochus 43 times despite losing to the Belgian.  Though Karlovic may not sit atop the list, he makes up for it by dominating the middle.

lAces  Winner              Loser             Year  Event             Surface  Score                  wAces  
43     Olivier Rochus      Mardy Fish        2007  Lyon              Carpet   6-7(5) 7-6(6) 7-6(15)      2  
37     Yevgeny Kafelnikov  Alexander Waske   2002  Tashkent          Hard     6-7(6) 7-6(5) 7-6(6)      10  
35     Pete Sampras        Goran Ivanisevic  1996  Tour Finals       Carpet   6-7(6) 7-6(4) 7-5         17  
35     Andy Roddick        Feliciano Lopez   2011  Queen's Club      Grass    7-6(2) 6-7(5) 6-4         15  
35     Feliciano Lopez     Ivo Karlovic      2004  Madrid Masters    Hard     6-4 6-7(10) 7-6(5)         8  
35     Yen Hsun Lu         Ivo Karlovic      2012  Queen's Club      Grass    6-7(3) 7-6(6) 7-6(7)       6  
35     Rafael Nadal        Ivo Karlovic      2008  Queen's Club      Grass    6-7(5) 7-6(5) 7-6(4)       6  
35     Arnaud Clement      Ivo Karlovic      2004  's-Hertogenbosch  Grass    7-6(8) 6-7(5) 6-3          2  
34     Thomas Johansson    Ivan Ljubicic     2002  Canada Masters    Hard     4-6 6-4 7-6(6)            17  
34     Lars Burgsmuller    Wayne Arthurs     2006  Tokyo             Hard     6-7(5) 7-6(7) 7-6(3)      10  
34     Richey Reneberg     Richard Krajicek  1997  Halle             Grass    4-6 7-6(2) 7-6(6)          6

Total aces in a single match

If there has never been a match in which both players hit 30 aces, a match total of 62 aces must be pretty impressive, right?

Indeed it is.  Del Potro and Brands are now tied for the record, initially set by John Isner and Gilles Muller two years ago in Atlanta.  It’s only the fourth time that two players have combined for 60 or more aces in a best-of-three contest.

totAces  Winner                 Loser             Year  Event               Surface  Score                 wAces  lAces  
62       Juan Martin Del Potro  Daniel Brands     2012  Vienna              Hard     6-7(5) 7-6(4) 7-6(6)     30     32  
62       John Isner             Gilles Muller     2010  Atlanta             Hard     4-6 7-6(6) 7-6(7)        33     29  
61       Andrei Pavel           Gregory Carraz    2005  Milan               Carpet   7-6(0) 6-7(5) 7-6(3)     28     33  
60       Goran Ivanisevic       Magnus Norman     1997  Zagreb              Carpet   7-6(5) 6-7(4) 7-5        40     20  
58       Frank Dancevic         Peter Wessels     2007  Stockholm           Hard     6-1 6-7(7) 7-6(6)        35     23  
55       Jan Michael Gambill    Wayne Arthurs     2002  San Jose            Hard     7-5 6-7(5) 7-6(4)        22     33  
55       Bohdan Ulihrach        Goran Ivanisevic  1999  Rotterdam           Carpet   6-7(6) 7-6(3) 7-5        23     32  
53       Andy Roddick           Wayne Arthurs     2006  Memphis             Hard     6-7(4) 7-6(9) 7-6(2)     20     33  
53       Andy Roddick           Sam Querrey       2010  San Jose            Hard     2-6 7-6(5) 7-6(4)        21     32  
53       Arnaud Clement         Thomas Johansson  2008  Cincinnati Masters  Hard     7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-3        25     28  
53       Joachim Johansson      Gregory Carraz    2004  Canada Masters      Hard     7-6(4) 6-7(3) 7-6(4)     30     23

The higher bar of ace rate

If you want to set a record in a best-of-three-sets match, getting to those three tiebreaks is a good idea.  The more points you play, the more likely you’ll hit more aces, as evidenced by Fish’s losing performance, where he not only reached three tiebreaks, but played at least twelve points in each one!

For greater context, we should open up the field to all matches regardless of length, and compare them by ace rate.

Del Potro’s 30 aces came in 125 service points, for an ace rate of 24%.  Brands hit 32 in 131, for an ace ate of 24.4%.  It’s not often that one player (not named Isner, anyway) hits nearly one-quarter of his serves for aces, so it is particularly unusual for both players to do so.

In all tour-level matches (including grand slams) since 1991, a minimum ace rate of 24.0% is only good for 17th.  Andy Roddick was particularly adept at bringing about these kinds of matches, appearing in 6 of the top 11 on this list:

minA%  Winner            Loser              Year  Event            Surface  Score                wA%    lA%  
33.3%  Andy Roddick      Ivo Karlovic       2009  Queen's Club     Grass    7-6(4) 7-6(5)      33.3%  35.1%  
29.8%  Mikhail Youzhny   Ivan Ljubicic      2007  Rotterdam        Hard     6-2 6-4            29.8%  29.8%  
29.2%  Gregory Carraz    Martin Verkerk     2004  Milan            Carpet   6-3 7-6(3)         30.4%  29.2%  
27.3%  Goran Ivanisevic  Boris Becker       1996  Antwerp          Carpet   6-4 7-6(5)         30.8%  27.3%  
27.1%  John Isner        Gilles Muller      2010  Atlanta          Hard     4-6 7-6(6) 7-6(7)  27.5%  27.1%  
27.0%  Robin Soderling   Andy Roddick       2008  Lyon             Carpet   7-6(5) 7-6(5)      27.0%  27.2%  
26.7%  Janko Tipsarevic  Peter Luczak       2010  s-Hertogenbosch  Grass    6-3 6-3            26.7%  27.1%  
26.1%  Andy Roddick      Gilles Muller      2008  Memphis          Hard     6-4 7-6(4)         27.4%  26.1%  
25.4%  Andy Roddick      Joachim Johansson  2004  San Jose         Hard     6-3 7-6(7)         36.5%  25.4%  
25.4%  Andy Roddick      Nicolas Mahut      2008  Lyon             Carpet   7-6(5) 6-4         29.0%  25.4%  
25.3%  Andy Roddick      Feliciano Lopez    2008  Dubai            Hard     6-7(8) 6-4 6-2     26.2%  25.3%

Ace rate in a losing effort

While losers rarely hit as many aces as Brands did last week, losers often hit aces at a much higher rate.  Brands doesn’t register anywhere near the top of this all-time list.

Think of it this way: The shorter the match, the more likely a player will do something off-the-charts, rate-wise.  Karlovic tops this list, with 28 aces in his 70 service points.  Brands didn’t maintain anywhere near the same rate that Ivo did, but Brands did have to hit nearly twice as many serves!  Had Karlovic continued for 61 more serves, he probably would’ve done better than 24.4%, but it is very unlikely he would have continued at a 4-in-10 pace.

This is also a reason why we haven’t seen many best-of-five matches on the ace-rate leaderboards.  Even if one player is acing like a madman while quickly losing, he still has to keep up the pace for three sets.

lA%    Winner              Loser               Year  Event               Surface  Score                     lAces  
40.0%  Florent Serra       Ivo Karlovic        2009  Basel               Hard     7-6(5) 6-4                   28  
37.5%  Alex Obrien         Mark Philippoussis  1996  Cincinnati Masters  Hard     6-4 6-4                      21  
36.6%  Thomas Johansson    Ivan Ljubicic       2002  Canada Masters      Hard     4-6 6-4 7-6(6)               34  
35.8%  Richey Reneberg     Richard Krajicek    1997  Halle               Grass    4-6 7-6(2) 7-6(6)            34  
35.1%  Andy Roddick        Ivo Karlovic        2009  Queen's Club        Grass    7-6(4) 7-6(5)                26  
34.8%  Paul Henri Mathieu  Ivo Karlovic        2009  Cincinnati Masters  Hard     7-6(9) 6-4                   23  
34.8%  Paul Henri Mathieu  Chris Guccione      2008  Adelaide            Hard     4-6 6-3 6-4                  24  
34.2%  Andre Agassi        Joachim Johansson   2005  Australian Open     Hard     6-7(4) 7-6(5) 7-6(3) 6-4     51  
33.8%  Jonas Bjorkman      Mark Philippoussis  2002  Memphis             Hard     7-6(6) 7-6(1)                26  
33.3%  Thomas Johansson    Wayne Arthurs       2001  Nottingham          Grass    7-6(3) 7-6(3)                24  
33.3%  Yevgeny Kafelnikov  Marc Rosset         2002  Marseille           Hard     6-3 7-6(5)                   19  
33.3%  Andre Agassi        Goran Ivanisevic    1994  Vienna              Carpet   6-4 6-4                      19

Combined ace rate

As you might have guessed by now, 24% isn’t going to be good enough to crack this final all-time list.  Roddick, Karlovic, and Mark Philippousis simply played too many matches to allow that to happen.

Indeed, the Brands/Del Potro combined rate of 24.2% isn’t even close to the top of this list.  To show up here, it’s necessary to come within an ace or two of the 30% mark.  With Andy’s retirement and Ivo’s decline, this leaderboard looks particularly safe at the moment.

totA%  Winner              Loser              Year  Event                 Surface  Score          totAces    wA%    lA%  
34.2%  Andy Roddick        Ivo Karlovic       2009  Queen's Club          Grass    7-6(4) 7-6(5)       50  33.3%  35.1%  
31.6%  Andy Roddick        Thomas Johansson   2004  Bangkok               Hard     6-3 6-4             31  38.2%  23.3%  
31.6%  Andy Roddick        Joachim Johansson  2004  San Jose              Hard     6-3 7-6(7)          42  36.5%  25.4%  
31.6%  Martin Verkerk      Thomas Enqvist     2003  Milan                 Carpet   6-3 6-4             30  46.0%  15.6%  
30.6%  Robin Soderling     Gregory Carraz     2004  Marseille             Hard     6-3 6-4             30  42.6%  19.6%  
30.4%  Jonathan Stark      Goran Ivanisevic   1997  Indian Wells Masters  Hard     7-5 6-3             34  37.7%  23.7%  
29.9%  Mark Philippoussis  Lionel Roux        1996  Paris Masters         Carpet   6-4 6-4             35  49.1%  11.7%  
29.8%  Mikhail Youzhny     Ivan Ljubicic      2007  Rotterdam             Hard     6-2 6-4             28  29.8%  29.8%  
29.8%  Gregory Carraz      Martin Verkerk     2004  Milan                 Carpet   6-3 7-6(3)          36  30.4%  29.2%  
29.0%  Jonathan Stark      Thomas Enqvist     1993  Halle                 Grass    6-4 6-2             27  37.8%  20.8%  
29.0%  Goran Ivanisevic    Boris Becker       1996  Antwerp               Carpet   6-4 7-6(5)          38  30.8%  27.3%

Andy, we’re missing you already.

1 Comment

Filed under Andy Roddick, Ivo Karlovic, John Isner, Mardy Fish, Records, Toy stats