2012 US Open Women’s Projections

Here are my pre-tournament odds for the 2012 US Open.  For some background reading, follow the links for more on my player rating systemcurrent rankings, and more on how I simulate tournaments.

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
1   Victoria Azarenka            92.6%  83.5%  70.0%    12.5%  
    Alexandra Panova              7.4%   3.2%   1.0%     0.0%  
    Barbora Zahlavova Strycova   46.8%   6.0%   2.1%     0.0%  
    Kirsten Flipkens             53.2%   7.3%   2.7%     0.0%  
    Su-Wei Hsieh                 56.4%  24.1%   5.4%     0.0%  
    Magdalena Rybarikova         43.6%  16.0%   2.9%     0.0%  
    Virginie Razzano             41.4%  22.8%   5.2%     0.0%  
28  Jie Zheng                    58.6%  37.1%  10.6%     0.2%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
18  Julia Goerges                80.7%  66.0%  37.5%     0.8%  
    Kristyna Pliskova            19.3%  10.1%   2.6%     0.0%  
    Mandy Minella                50.2%  12.0%   3.0%     0.0%  
    Olivia Rogowska              49.8%  11.9%   2.9%     0.0%  
    Stephanie Foretz Gacon       43.0%   7.4%   2.0%     0.0%  
    Anna Tatishvili              57.0%  12.4%   4.0%     0.0%  
    Sorana Cirstea               40.3%  30.8%  16.9%     0.2%  
16  Sabine Lisicki               59.7%  49.4%  31.2%     0.8%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
9   Na Li                        85.7%  75.7%  41.9%     4.6%  
    Heather Watson               14.3%   8.0%   1.6%     0.0%  
    Lesia Tsurenko               45.0%   6.6%   1.0%     0.0%  
    Casey Dellacqua              55.0%   9.7%   1.8%     0.0%  
    Samantha Crawford            14.0%   0.5%   0.0%     0.0%  
    Laura Robson                 86.0%  14.2%   3.6%     0.0%  
    Victoria Duval                0.9%   0.1%   0.0%     0.0%  
23  Kim Clijsters                99.1%  85.3%  50.1%     5.5%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
31  Varvara Lepchenko            66.9%  44.1%  15.7%     0.0%  
    Mathilde Johansson           33.1%  16.1%   3.7%     0.0%  
    Anastasia Rodionova          55.9%  23.4%   5.9%     0.0%  
    Julia Cohen                  44.1%  16.4%   3.5%     0.0%  
    Edina Gallovits-Hall         44.2%   7.1%   2.7%     0.0%  
    Stefanie Voegele             55.8%  10.8%   4.7%     0.0%  
    Petra Martic                 25.5%  17.6%  10.7%     0.0%  
7   Samantha Stosur              74.5%  64.5%  53.0%     2.1%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
3   Maria Sharapova              86.5%  77.7%  67.0%     9.3%  
    Melinda Czink                13.5%   7.9%   4.1%     0.0%  
    Lourdes Dominguez Lino       48.9%   6.9%   3.0%     0.0%  
    Sesil Karatantcheva          51.1%   7.4%   3.3%     0.0%  
    Timea Bacsinszky             70.8%  19.4%   2.5%     0.0%  
    Mallory Burdette             29.2%   3.9%   0.3%     0.0%  
    Lucie Hradecka               38.0%  27.1%   5.7%     0.0%  
27  Anabel Medina Garrigues      62.0%  49.6%  14.1%     0.1%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
19  Nadia Petrova                67.0%  36.1%  19.5%     0.2%  
    Jarmila Gajdosova            33.0%  12.0%   4.4%     0.0%  
    Simona Halep                 49.9%  25.8%  12.8%     0.1%  
    Iveta Benesova               50.1%  26.1%  13.0%     0.1%  
    Alexandra Cadantu            21.3%   4.5%   1.0%     0.0%  
    Aleksandra Wozniak           78.7%  37.7%  18.7%     0.2%  
    Melanie Oudin                30.9%  13.9%   5.3%     0.0%  
15  Lucie Safarova               69.1%  43.9%  25.4%     0.4%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
11  Marion Bartoli               78.4%  46.4%  28.9%     1.2%  
    Jamie Hampton                21.6%   6.4%   2.1%     0.0%  
    Romina Oprandi               24.5%   7.1%   2.3%     0.0%  
    Andrea Petkovic              75.5%  40.2%  23.9%     0.7%  
    Kristina Mladenovic          37.5%   7.2%   1.4%     0.0%  
    Marina Erakovic              62.5%  17.6%   4.9%     0.0%  
    Daniela Hantuchova           48.8%  36.5%  17.6%     0.4%  
17  Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova     51.2%  38.7%  18.9%     0.5%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
25  Yanina Wickmayer             82.8%  64.6%  26.3%     0.6%  
    Julia Glushko                17.2%   7.3%   1.2%     0.0%  
    Pauline Parmentier           45.4%  11.9%   2.1%     0.0%  
    Michaella Krajicek           54.6%  16.2%   3.3%     0.0%  
    Nicole Gibbs                 23.5%   1.7%   0.3%     0.0%  
    Alize Cornet                 76.5%  15.0%   5.8%     0.0%  
    Polona Hercog                15.7%   9.2%   3.9%     0.0%  
5   Petra Kvitova                84.3%  74.0%  57.1%     6.9%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
8   Caroline Wozniacki           85.1%  72.5%  52.5%     4.1%  
    Irina-Camelia Begu           14.9%   7.6%   2.4%     0.0%  
    Silvia Soler-Espinosa        57.0%  12.3%   4.3%     0.0%  
    Alla Kudryavtseva            43.0%   7.6%   2.2%     0.0%  
    Tsvetana Pironkova           68.7%  48.3%  22.8%     0.5%  
    Camila Giorgi                31.3%  16.4%   5.2%     0.0%  
    Ayumi Morita                 37.6%  10.7%   2.6%     0.0%  
26  Monica Niculescu             62.4%  24.5%   8.0%     0.0%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
22  Francesca Schiavone          55.4%  41.9%  18.9%     0.2%  
    Sloane Stephens              44.6%  31.9%  12.9%     0.1%  
    Akgul Amanmuradova           52.9%  14.2%   3.3%     0.0%  
    Tatjana Malek                47.1%  12.0%   2.5%     0.0%  
    Kimiko Date-Krumm            29.2%   5.8%   1.8%     0.0%  
    Sofia Arvidsson              70.8%  25.3%  13.4%     0.1%  
    Elina Svitolina              13.8%   4.5%   1.4%     0.0%  
12  Ana Ivanovic                 86.2%  64.4%  45.8%     1.6%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
14  Maria Kirilenko              67.6%  50.9%  31.6%     0.6%  
    Chanelle Scheepers           32.4%  19.5%   8.6%     0.0%  
    Agnes Szavay                 16.2%   1.4%   0.2%     0.0%  
    Greta Arn                    83.8%  28.2%  11.2%     0.0%  
    Galina Voskoboeva            59.1%  30.2%  15.0%     0.1%  
    Arantxa Rus                  40.9%  17.3%   7.1%     0.0%  
    Andrea Hlavackova            30.0%  11.4%   4.0%     0.0%  
24  Klara Zakopalova             70.0%  41.1%  22.3%     0.2%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
32  Shuai Peng                   57.6%  25.3%   5.2%     0.1%  
    Elena Vesnina                42.4%  15.8%   2.6%     0.0%  
    Ekaterina Makarova           80.0%  52.4%  14.9%     0.8%  
    Eleni Daniilidou             20.0%   6.5%   0.8%     0.0%  
    Mirjana Lucic                35.6%   3.0%   0.8%     0.0%  
    Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez  64.4%   8.7%   3.4%     0.0%  
    Coco Vandeweghe               8.2%   4.1%   1.3%     0.0%  
4   Serena Williams              91.8%  84.2%  70.9%    26.1%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
6   Angelique Kerber             88.6%  65.7%  48.5%     6.0%  
    Anne Keothavong              11.4%   3.3%   1.0%     0.0%  
    Bethanie Mattek-Sands        30.1%   6.3%   2.4%     0.0%  
    Venus Williams               69.9%  24.7%  13.9%     0.4%  
    Johanna Konta                42.7%  10.2%   1.6%     0.0%  
    Timea Babos                  57.3%  16.6%   3.3%     0.0%  
    Olga Govortsova              18.2%   8.4%   1.4%     0.0%  
29  Tamira Paszek                81.8%  64.8%  27.9%     1.1%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
21  Christina McHale             75.7%  61.4%  41.8%     1.0%  
    Kiki Bertens                 24.3%  14.2%   6.0%     0.0%  
    Olga Puchkova                39.7%   7.9%   2.4%     0.0%  
    Irina Falconi                60.3%  16.5%   6.5%     0.0%  
    Vera Dushevina               68.3%  27.2%  10.4%     0.0%  
    Nastassja Burnett            31.7%   7.5%   1.7%     0.0%  
    Garbine Muguruza             36.1%  20.5%   7.9%     0.0%  
10  Sara Errani                  63.9%  44.9%  23.3%     0.2%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
13  Dominika Cibulkova           73.9%  54.9%  35.7%     1.3%  
    Johanna Larsson              26.1%  13.2%   5.2%     0.0%  
    Bojana Jovanovski            44.2%  13.1%   4.8%     0.0%  
    Mona Barthel                 55.8%  18.8%   8.0%     0.0%  
    Vania King                   54.1%  25.1%  11.3%     0.1%  
    Yaroslava Shvedova           45.9%  19.7%   8.2%     0.0%  
    Urszula Radwanska            45.1%  23.7%  10.9%     0.1%  
20  Roberta Vinci                54.9%  31.5%  15.9%     0.2%  

    Player                         R64    R32    R16        W  
30  Jelena Jankovic              60.9%  40.0%  14.4%     0.2%  
    Kateryna Bondarenko          39.1%  21.7%   6.0%     0.0%  
    Lara Arruabarrena-Vecino     25.7%   5.6%   0.7%     0.0%  
    Shahar Peer                  74.3%  32.6%   9.1%     0.0%  
    Ksenia Pervak                47.1%  10.4%   4.7%     0.0%  
    Carla Suarez Navarro         52.9%  12.6%   6.1%     0.0%  
    Nina Bratchikova             11.3%   4.2%   1.4%     0.0%  
2   Agnieszka Radwanska          88.7%  72.7%  57.6%     6.7%
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4 Comments

Filed under Forecasting, U.S. Open, WTA

4 responses to “2012 US Open Women’s Projections

  1. Jeff – not to add to your workload, but is there any way of creating and posting a sortable list by different variables? I’m imagining some kind of WordPress plugin for sorting tables using Java and/or Ajax that maybe somebody already built, ha ha.

    What I’m wanting to be able to do is sort by the last column, W, so I can see at a glance where the top 10 fall. I guess I could do this easily enough if I just copied and pasted into Excel – often a pain, but usually doable – or if I took the time to cook up a simple Python script to handle the paste-as-text instead of Excel. Unfortunately, since I don’t script much any more, and Python syntax has moved on in some odd ways since I used to use it regularly, “cooking up a simple Python script” would take a bunch of hours. Sigh – oh well, just a wish but not important. Thanks for the forecasts.

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