Men’s and Women’s French Open Forecasts, Updating Live

Every match completed at Roland Garros has implications on the title chances of several players.  I’ve created two pages that update throughout the tournament to track each player’s odds of reaching each successive round:

For reference, you can check each player’s pre-tournament odds: men and women.

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2 Comments

Filed under Forecasting, French Open

2 responses to “Men’s and Women’s French Open Forecasts, Updating Live

  1. Tom Welsh

    So… after winning in the first round, Ferrer’s chances of winning the tournament have improved slightly. But after winning the first round also, Del Potro’s chances of winning have decreased! How did that happen?

    • The differences are slight, but it’s about who they’ll have to play in the next couple of rounds. If the favorites in your immediate bracket win, your odds go down — it’s no longer a 70% chance of playing [favorite] and a 30% chance of playing [underdog], but a 100% chance of playing [favorite]. All the favorites (with the exception of minor upset Llodra) in Delpo’s eighth won.

      Ferrer’s isn’t much different, but his eighth includes slight underdogs Paire, Haase, and Jaziri. And the 0.1% change for him could be the vagaries of a Monte Carlo sim.

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