2012 French Open Projections

Yesterday we saw who gained and lost from the French Open draw.  Today we get to what you really care about: Each player’s odds of progressing through the tournament.

According to my ranking system, combined with the actual draw, this year’s favorite is … a tie.  How’s that for a cop out–virtually even odds for Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, both with roughly 30% chances of winning the event.  Roger Federer is in a distant third at 12%, with the unlikely Janko Tipsarevic far behind him in fourth with 5.7%.  No one (including myself) cares much for Janko’s chances, but this is a man who has beaten both Djokovic and Tomas Berdych on clay.  With the exception of David Ferrer (languishing as 8th favorite, below 3%), no one in the following pack has shown much clay-court consistency.

The highest-rated non-seeds are David Nalbandian, Thomaz Bellucci, and Marcos Baghdatis.  Nalbandian, of course, has a probable second-rounder with Federer, but if he gets through it, he’ll have the benefits of Federer’s easy early-round draw.  Baghdatis will have an early test in Nicolas Almagro, a man who is in form but may have spent his energy in the wrong French city.  And Bellucci drew Viktor Troicki, one of the weakest seeds, despite the Serb’s strong showing in Dusseldorf this week.

The full odds are below.  By Tuesday or Wednesday, I should have a page published that will update odds throughout the tournament.

    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
1   Novak Djokovic          96.6%  93.4%  88.1%    30.2%  
    Potito Starace           3.4%   1.8%   0.7%     0.0%  
    Blaz Kavcic             78.1%   4.5%   2.0%     0.0%  
WC  Lleyton Hewitt          21.9%   0.4%   0.1%     0.0%  
q   Filip Krajinovic        59.1%  18.6%   1.1%     0.0%  
q   Nicolas Devilder        40.9%   9.9%   0.4%     0.0%  
q   Michael Berrer          30.1%  17.8%   1.2%     0.0%  
30  Jurgen Melzer           69.9%  53.7%   6.5%     0.0%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
22  Andreas Seppi           56.5%  33.5%  16.1%     0.0%  
    Nikolay Davydenko       43.5%  23.0%   9.8%     0.0%  
    Mikhail Kukushkin       49.4%  21.3%   8.4%     0.0%  
    Ernests Gulbis          50.6%  22.2%   8.9%     0.0%  
q   Igor Sijsling           51.1%  15.2%   6.2%     0.0%  
    Gilles Muller           48.9%  14.3%   5.7%     0.0%  
    Steve Darcis            24.1%  12.3%   5.1%     0.0%  
14  Fernando Verdasco       75.9%  58.2%  39.9%     0.2%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
11  Gilles Simon            73.8%  59.4%  32.4%     0.3%  
    Ryan Harrison           26.2%  15.7%   5.1%     0.0%  
    Xavier Malisse          70.7%  20.5%   6.0%     0.0%  
WC  Brian Baker             29.3%   4.4%   0.7%     0.0%  
    Pablo Andujar           57.2%  13.7%   4.5%     0.0%  
    Victor Hanescu          42.8%   8.3%   2.3%     0.0%  
    Flavio Cipolla          15.4%   7.4%   2.1%     0.0%  
18  Stanislas Wawrinka      84.6%  70.6%  46.8%     0.8%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
28  Viktor Troicki          41.9%  25.6%   6.2%     0.0%  
    Thomaz Bellucci         58.1%  39.7%  11.8%     0.0%  
    Fabio Fognini           54.9%  20.2%   3.9%     0.0%  
WC  Adrian Mannarino        45.1%  14.5%   2.4%     0.0%  
    Cedrik-Marcel Stebe     58.0%   9.3%   3.9%     0.0%  
    Joao Souza              42.0%   5.2%   1.8%     0.0%  
q   Andrey Kuznetsov        10.2%   5.1%   2.0%     0.0%  
5   Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      89.8%  80.5%  68.0%     4.5%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
3   Roger Federer           93.5%  81.7%  73.8%    12.0%  
    Tobias Kamke             6.5%   2.2%   0.8%     0.0%  
    Adrian Ungur            24.7%   2.0%   0.8%     0.0%  
    David Nalbandian        75.3%  14.1%   9.0%     0.1%  
    Frank Dancevic          43.6%  17.7%   2.1%     0.0%  
    Martin Klizan           56.4%  25.9%   3.8%     0.0%  
    Nicolas Mahut           27.8%  11.0%   1.0%     0.0%  
26  Andy Roddick            72.2%  45.4%   8.7%     0.0%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
23  Radek Stepanek          46.6%  27.7%  13.2%     0.0%  
LL  David Goffin            53.4%  33.8%  17.3%     0.0%  
WC  Arnaud Clement          36.0%  10.9%   3.3%     0.0%  
    Alex Bogomolov Jr.      64.0%  27.5%  11.8%     0.0%  
    Karol Beck              33.9%   9.3%   3.1%     0.0%  
    Lukasz Kubot            66.1%  27.4%  13.6%     0.0%  
q   Florent Serra           26.0%  11.9%   4.7%     0.0%  
15  Feliciano Lopez         74.0%  51.4%  32.9%     0.0%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
9   Juan Martin Del Potro   87.7%  78.8%  63.9%     3.2%  
    Albert Montanes         12.3%   6.7%   2.6%     0.0%  
    E. Roger-Vasselin       50.0%   7.3%   2.6%     0.0%  
    Vasek Pospisil          50.0%   7.2%   2.5%     0.0%  
    Juan Carlos Ferrero     63.6%  27.3%   6.6%     0.0%  
WC  J. Dasnieres De Veigy   36.4%  11.3%   2.0%     0.0%  
q   D. Munoz-De La Nava     21.4%   7.9%   1.2%     0.0%  
21  Marin Cilic             78.6%  53.5%  18.5%     0.1%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
31  Kevin Anderson          70.0%  50.1%  15.9%     0.0%  
    Rui Machado             30.0%  15.8%   2.9%     0.0%  
WC  Eric Prodon             41.2%  12.2%   1.8%     0.0%  
q   Horacio Zeballos        58.8%  21.9%   4.3%     0.0%  
    Michael Llodra          46.9%  10.0%   5.2%     0.0%  
    Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  53.1%  12.5%   6.8%     0.0%  
    Dudi Sela               12.3%   4.8%   2.1%     0.0%  
7   Tomas Berdych           87.7%  72.6%  61.0%     2.3%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
6   David Ferrer            84.0%  70.2%  55.9%     2.4%  
    Lukas Lacko             16.0%   7.8%   3.4%     0.0%  
    Benoit Paire            49.1%  10.7%   4.7%     0.0%  
    Albert Ramos            50.9%  11.2%   5.0%     0.0%  
    Ivan Dodig              56.2%  31.3%  10.5%     0.0%  
    Robin Haase             43.8%  21.6%   6.2%     0.0%  
    James Blake             31.1%  10.6%   2.0%     0.0%  
27  Mikhail Youzhny         68.9%  36.5%  12.2%     0.0%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
20  Marcel Granollers       66.9%  44.7%  22.7%     0.1%  
q   Joao Sousa              33.1%  16.4%   5.9%     0.0%  
    Malek Jaziri            45.3%  16.6%   5.6%     0.0%  
    Philipp Petzschner      54.7%  22.3%   8.6%     0.0%  
WC  Paul-Henri Mathieu      50.0%  11.4%   3.7%     0.0%  
    Bjorn Phau              50.0%  11.4%   3.6%     0.0%  
q   Rogerio Dutra Silva     18.5%   9.7%   3.4%     0.0%  
10  John Isner              81.5%  67.5%  46.5%     0.5%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
16  Alexandr Dolgopolov     70.8%  58.8%  27.9%     0.2%  
    Sergiy Stakhovsky       29.3%  19.4%   5.7%     0.0%  
    Filippo Volandri        62.9%  15.5%   3.2%     0.0%  
q   Tommy Haas              37.1%   6.2%   0.9%     0.0%  
    Donald Young            43.2%   9.8%   3.8%     0.0%  
    Grigor DiMitrov         56.8%  15.5%   6.8%     0.0%  
q   Jurgen Zopp             17.8%   8.5%   3.3%     0.0%  
17  Richard Gasquet         82.2%  66.2%  48.5%     1.4%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
25  Bernard Tomic           73.8%  47.6%  17.1%     0.1%  
q   Andreas Haider-Maurer   26.2%  10.4%   1.9%     0.0%  
    Santiago Giraldo        63.3%  29.5%   8.5%     0.0%  
    Alejandro Falla         36.7%  12.5%   2.4%     0.0%  
    Jarkko Nieminen         48.3%   8.4%   3.2%     0.0%  
    Igor Andreev            51.7%   9.8%   3.8%     0.0%  
    Tatsuma Ito              8.9%   3.4%   0.9%     0.0%  
4   Andy Murray             91.1%  78.4%  62.1%     3.8%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
8   Janko Tipsarevic        82.5%  72.8%  64.6%     5.7%  
    Sam Querrey             17.5%  10.7%   6.7%     0.0%  
    Jeremy Chardy           64.0%  12.2%   6.9%     0.0%  
    Yen-Hsun Lu             36.0%   4.3%   1.8%     0.0%  
    Dmitry Tursunov         49.3%  17.2%   2.5%     0.0%  
    Go Soeda                50.7%  17.9%   2.5%     0.0%  
q   Mischa Zverev           34.1%  18.6%   3.1%     0.0%  
29  Julien Benneteau        65.9%  46.3%  11.8%     0.0%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
24  Philipp Kohlschreiber   70.5%  47.1%  23.0%     0.1%  
    Matthew Ebden           29.5%  13.5%   3.9%     0.0%  
    Olivier Rochus          41.2%  14.2%   4.1%     0.0%  
    Leonardo Mayer          58.8%  25.1%   9.2%     0.0%  
    Juan Ignacio Chela      29.5%   9.0%   3.6%     0.0%  
    Marcos Baghdatis        70.5%  34.8%  21.1%     0.1%  
    Paolo Lorenzi           21.6%   7.0%   2.5%     0.0%  
12  Nicolas Almagro         78.4%  49.2%  32.5%     0.2%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
13  Juan Monaco             69.3%  48.7%  23.3%     0.1%  
WC  Guillaume Rufin         30.7%  15.7%   4.9%     0.0%  
    Lukas Rosol             52.5%  19.2%   6.0%     0.0%  
    Carlos Berlocq          47.5%  16.4%   4.9%     0.0%  
q   Jesse Levine            50.8%  10.1%   3.2%     0.0%  
    Benjamin Becker         49.2%   9.6%   2.9%     0.0%  
    Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo   13.4%   6.3%   1.8%     0.0%  
19  Milos Raonic            86.6%  74.0%  52.9%     0.6%  
                                                          
    Player                    R64    R32    R16        W  
32  Florian Mayer           71.3%  50.2%   7.5%     0.1%  
    Daniel Gimeno-Traver    28.7%  13.8%   1.0%     0.0%  
q   Eduardo Schwank         43.4%  14.2%   1.0%     0.0%  
    Ivo Karlovic            56.6%  21.8%   1.9%     0.0%  
    Igor Kunitsyn           31.7%   1.3%   0.4%     0.0%  
    Denis Istomin           68.3%   4.9%   2.2%     0.0%  
    Simone Bolelli           3.8%   1.8%   0.7%     0.0%  
2   Rafael Nadal            96.2%  92.1%  85.3%    30.4%

 

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