2012 Miami Projections: Semifinals

It’s three of the big four … and Juan Monaco.  Pico has always been better on hard courts than he gets credit for, but after knocking out the former and current American #1s in successive rounds, he finds himself a little out of his depth.

Here are the odds for today’s semifinal matches:

Player                 F      W  
(1)Novak Djokovic  84.9%  50.5%  
(21)Juan Monaco    15.1%   3.2%  
(4)Andy Murray     49.3%  22.7%  
(2)Rafael Nadal    50.7%  23.6%

Also, here are my probabilities for every possible final matchup.  The number in each row is the percentage chance that the player on the left beats the player on the right.  In other words, the top row says: “If Djokovic faces Murray, he has a 59.9% chance of winning.”

Player             Opponent            P(W)  
(1)Novak Djokovic  (4)Andy Murray     59.9%  
(1)Novak Djokovic  (2)Rafael Nadal    59.3%  
                                             
(21)Juan Monaco    (4)Andy Murray     21.2%  
(21)Juan Monaco    (2)Rafael Nadal    20.8%  
                                             
(4)Andy Murray     (1)Novak Djokovic  40.1%  
(4)Andy Murray     (21)Juan Monaco    78.8%  
                                             
(2)Rafael Nadal    (1)Novak Djokovic  40.7%  
(2)Rafael Nadal    (21)Juan Monaco    79.2%
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2 Comments

Filed under Forecasting, Miami

2 responses to “2012 Miami Projections: Semifinals

  1. Tom Welsh

    Both the former and current American #1s played some rather poor tennis! Roddick claimed, reasonably enough, that he was struck down by sheer fatigue after the first set. I’m not sure what Fish’s excuse would be, but the syndrome may be similar to Delpo’s surprisingly meek loss to Ferrer. Sheer frustration at meeting with consistent strong play from someone whom one might – if only subconsciously – have expected to beat. It’s tough enough coming out on court and finding yourself outplayed, but when it’s by an opponent you feel you should beat, something may give in the mind.

    One of the tennistv commentators said something that amused me about the Monaco-Fish match. He mentioned that Fish had once said, when talking about Miami, that you could sometimes catch clay-court specialists with their guard down, already thinking about Monte Carlo and Barcelona. Seems this time that mechanism may have gone into reverse!

  2. Tom Welsh

    And there goes Murray again – his SECOND walkover of the tournament. So he reaches the final by defeating Falla, Simon, and Tipsarevic. And, of course, he will be a lot fresher than Djokovic.

    I know, I know… it’s just blind random chance. But it’s very annoying.

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