2012 Miami Projections: Fourth Round

Men’s tennis may be predictable these days, but it’s not that predictable.  Andy Roddick beat Roger Federer last night, handing Federer his first loss in a best-of-three since August, sending home the hottest player in the game.  (It’s also Fed’s first lost to anyone outside of the top 20 in almost two years. The last one was his 2010 loss to Lleyton Hewitt in Halle.) Federer’s exit makes life easier for Novak Djokovic, who would’ve faced Fed in the semis, and does an even bigger favor for Mardy Fish, who would’ve played Roger in the quarters.

11 of the top 16 seeds are still alive, but things have definitely gotten more interesting.

Player                        QF     SF      F      W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          80.5%  56.5%  45.4%  30.0%  
(17)Richard Gasquet        19.5%   7.2%   3.6%   1.2%  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  62.6%  25.2%  17.1%   8.7%  
(5)David Ferrer            37.4%  11.1%   6.2%   2.4%  

(31)Andy Roddick           55.6%  25.6%   6.8%   2.2%  
(21)Juan Monaco            44.4%  18.0%   4.0%   1.1%  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        41.0%  21.0%   5.4%   1.6%  
(8)Mardy Fish              59.0%  35.5%  11.5%   4.5%  

Player                        QF     SF      F      W  
Grigor Dimitrov            35.3%   7.7%   1.8%   0.4%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        64.7%  21.5%   7.4%   2.5%  
(13)Gilles Simon           27.0%  14.9%   5.2%   1.7%  
(4)Andy Murray             73.0%  55.9%  32.5%  17.9%  

(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      65.4%  29.2%  14.9%   6.7%  
(19)Florian Mayer          34.6%  10.5%   3.8%   1.2%  
(16)Kei Nishikori          31.4%  14.9%   6.5%   2.5%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            68.6%  45.4%  27.9%  15.5%
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3 Comments

Filed under Forecasting, Miami

3 responses to “2012 Miami Projections: Fourth Round

  1. Tom Welsh

    “It’s also Fed’s first lost to anyone outside of the top 20 in almost two years. The last one was his 2010 loss to Lleyton Hewitt in Halle”.

    To paraphrase what Roger said in his press conference, he didn’t so much think of it as losing to the #31 seed as to a former world #1. The same applies to his loss to Hewitt. Those guys may have aged, accumulated injuries, lost their old desire, etc. – but, at a given moment, it can sometimes all come together again. Then watch out!

    • Absolutely. It’s on my list of things to research — whether ‘peak ranking’ has predictive value. It may just be that as top players age and decline, they get less consistent — #31 means they can occasionally beat #1 but sometimes lose to #150.

  2. Tom Welsh

    And it’s reasonable to suppose that playing the very best opposition is the trigger needed to take them back to their glory days.

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