2012 Miami Projections: 3rd Round

The 2nd round went almost precisely according to script, leaving us with some high-profile matchups for a mere third round.  The closest third-rounders on paper (my paper, anyway) are Almagro/Verdasco and Tipsarevic/Dolgopolov.  While Federer and (particularly) Murray have big-serving challenges this round, Djokovic and Nadal are set to coast.  The only question is: How many games will Novak allow Troicki to win this time?

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          85.0%  70.8%  52.1%    25.2%  
(27)Viktor Troicki         15.0%   7.3%   2.5%     0.2%  
(17)Richard Gasquet        79.2%  20.0%   8.4%     1.1%  
Albert Ramos               20.8%   1.9%   0.3%     0.0%  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  67.7%  45.2%  20.0%     6.0%  
(23)Marin Cilic            32.3%  15.9%   4.7%     0.6%  
(30)Julien Benneteau       36.1%  11.0%   2.6%     0.2%  
(5)David Ferrer            63.9%  27.9%   9.4%     1.6%  

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(3)Roger Federer           75.0%  52.3%  38.6%    12.3%  
(31)Andy Roddick           25.0%  11.1%   5.4%     0.5%  
(21)Juan Monaco            33.2%   9.0%   3.9%     0.3%  
(14)Gael Monfils           66.8%  27.7%  16.8%     2.9%  
(12)Nicolas Almagro        50.8%  23.0%   7.5%     0.7%  
(20)Fernando Verdasco      49.2%  21.8%   7.0%     0.6%  
(28)Kevin Anderson         38.7%  18.7%   5.8%     0.5%  
(8)Mardy Fish              61.3%  36.5%  15.0%     2.2%  

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(7)Tomas Berdych           74.7%  47.0%  23.3%     4.7%  
Grigor Dimitrov            25.3%   9.0%   2.2%     0.1%  
(18)Alexandr Dolgopolov    48.8%  21.1%   7.8%     0.8%  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        51.2%  23.0%   8.7%     1.0%  
(13)Gilles Simon           57.8%  19.2%   8.8%     1.0%  
(22)Jurgen Melzer          42.2%  11.3%   4.3%     0.3%  
(26)Milos Raonic           27.1%  14.5%   6.8%     0.8%  
(4)Andy Murray             72.9%  54.9%  38.1%    12.1%  

Player                       R16     QF     SF        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      68.1%  40.5%  19.5%     4.4%  
(32)Philipp Kohlschreiber  31.9%  13.1%   4.2%     0.4%  
(19)Florian Mayer          39.8%  16.2%   5.5%     0.6%  
(10)John Isner             60.2%  30.2%  13.0%     2.4%  
(16)Kei Nishikori          77.3%  29.0%  14.1%     2.3%  
Lukas Rosol                22.7%   3.9%   0.9%     0.0%  
(25)Radek Stepanek         16.0%   5.7%   1.6%     0.1%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            84.0%  61.5%  41.2%    13.9%
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6 Comments

Filed under Forecasting, Miami

6 responses to “2012 Miami Projections: 3rd Round

  1. Tom Welsh

    And it’s happened yet again! Andy Murray has had a potentially rather dangerous opponent swept out of his path. Bye, Falla (No. 71), walkover… and suddenly he’s in the quarter-final. Facing an opponent who WON’T be Tomas Berdych, but either Tipsarevic or Dimitrov.

    Whereas Tsonga gets Kohlschreiber, probably Isner, and probably Nadal. And Del Potro gets a bye, Karlovic, Cilic, probably Ferrer, and then in the quarter-final probably Djokovic.

    Is it any wonder Murray clings tenaciously to the #4 ranking year after year? How does he do it?

    • Only to the fourth round, but it’s certainly an easy path.

      I don’t know if Murray really gets more of this sort of luck than the other three — after all, Djokovic drawing Troicki is roughly the same thing — but I doubt the luck has much to do with him staying in the top 4. That’s due to the combination of his occasional major win over the rest of the big four and the lack of anybody else showing up to knock him out. We both love Del Potro, but him hanging around the fringes of the top 10 can’t be entirely due to tough draws.

  2. Tom Welsh

    Of course Tsonga begins with a bye too, like all the seeds.

  3. Tom Welsh

    Well, Delpo’s record so far this year speaks for itself. He has lost five times: once to Baghdatis, before he really found his groove, and four times to Federer, who is the world #1 based on this year’s results only. If that isn’t bad luck, it’s a construct of the rating system which repeatedly slams him into Federer at the quarter-final stage. Whereas Murray, being #4, tends to get whoever is #8, #12, etc. (I’m not quite sure of the excact numbers, but the logic is something like that).

    • This year, yes — but the ranking ‘race’ puts him at #6 (by a whisker behind Murray). Bad luck, but not out-of-the-top-10 bad luck. http://live-tennis.eu/race

      On the board for the last 12 months, though, are losses to Mannarino, Cilic, Gulbis, Blake, Simon, and Granollers. If he got the worst possible draw every week and got far enough to lose to Fed/Rafa/Novak every time, I’ll be he’d still be top 5 or 6.

  4. Tom Welsh

    I like this comment from the ATP site:

    “…the Argentine is 3-0 this year against Top 10 players not named Federer”.

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