2012 Indian Wells Draw Predictions

The Indian Wells draw is out.  With my latest hard-court rankings, I’ve run simulations on the draw.  Qualifiers aren’t yet placed, so I set all of the qualifiers equal to the 100th-ranked player.

I’d like to have some flashy, controversial projections, but the numbers don’t look much different than they did before the Australian Open.  Djokovic has a 27% chance of winning, Nadal 13.2%, with Murray a bit ahead of Federer.  Murray not only rates a bit higher in my ranking system after his latest win over Novak, but he has a somewhat easier draw here.

Here are the full projections:

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic         100.0%  92.2%  78.9%    27.2%  
Qualifier1                 50.0%   3.9%   1.3%     0.0%  
Qualifier2                 50.0%   3.9%   1.3%     0.0%  
Matthias Bachinger         34.5%  13.1%   1.7%     0.0%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber      65.5%  35.2%   7.3%     0.2%  
(29)Kevin Anderson        100.0%  51.6%   9.5%     0.2%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(18)Florian Mayer         100.0%  69.5%  37.6%     0.7%  
Robin Haase                72.5%  25.8%  10.4%     0.0%  
Pablo Andujar              27.5%   4.7%   1.0%     0.0%  
Albert Ramos               36.8%   6.7%   1.6%     0.0%  
(WC)Jesse Levine           63.2%  17.8%   6.3%     0.0%  
Richard Gasquet           100.0%  75.5%  43.1%     1.0%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(12)Nicolas Almagro       100.0%  56.8%  23.8%     0.3%  
Qualifier3                 33.1%  10.6%   2.8%     0.0%  
(WC)Sam Querrey            66.9%  32.6%  13.1%     0.1%  
Santiago Giraldo           80.6%  23.1%  10.2%     0.1%  
(WC)Jack Sock              19.4%   1.8%   0.3%     0.0%  
(17)Kei Nishikori         100.0%  75.1%  49.8%     2.3%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(30)Andy Roddick          100.0%  62.1%  26.4%     0.6%  
Ivo Karlovic               54.8%  22.0%   7.4%     0.1%  
Lukasz Kubot               45.2%  15.9%   4.6%     0.0%  
Alex Bogomolov Jr.         48.3%  11.3%   4.6%     0.0%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky          51.7%  12.8%   5.3%     0.0%  
(7)Tomas Berdych          100.0%  75.8%  51.7%     3.8%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(4)Andy Murray            100.0%  83.3%  64.7%    10.0%  
Guillermo Garcia Lopez     80.3%  15.5%   7.3%     0.1%  
Rui Machado                19.7%   1.2%   0.2%     0.0%  
Flavio Cipolla             40.2%  13.9%   2.7%     0.0%  
Ryan Harrison              59.8%  26.5%   6.8%     0.1%  
(25)Viktor Troicki        100.0%  59.6%  18.2%     0.3%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(23)Stanislas Wawrinka    100.0%  79.2%  48.0%     1.8%  
Qualifier4                 61.7%  14.7%   4.9%     0.0%  
(WC)Robby Ginepri          38.3%   6.1%   1.5%     0.0%  
Qualifier5                 42.6%  11.7%   3.5%     0.0%  
Dudi Sela                  57.4%  19.3%   6.8%     0.0%  
(13)Gilles Simon          100.0%  69.1%  35.4%     0.8%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(11)John Isner            100.0%  73.7%  46.1%     1.2%  
Qualifier6                 50.0%  13.2%   5.0%     0.0%  
Qualifier7                 50.0%  13.1%   5.0%     0.0%  
Qualifier8                 48.0%  15.5%   5.0%     0.0%  
Nicolas Mahut              52.0%  17.8%   6.1%     0.0%  
(22)Juan Monaco           100.0%  66.7%  32.9%     0.4%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(32)Julien Benneteau      100.0%  69.1%  29.4%     0.4%  
Qualifier9                 54.2%  17.7%   4.7%     0.0%  
Igor Kunitsyn              45.8%  13.2%   3.1%     0.0%  
Andreas Seppi              56.1%  18.0%   9.4%     0.1%  
Olivier Rochus             43.9%  12.0%   5.5%     0.0%  
(8)Mardy Fish             100.0%  70.0%  48.0%     2.5%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(5)David Ferrer           100.0%  67.6%  51.5%     2.2%  
Ivan Dodig                 54.9%  18.8%  11.7%     0.1%  
Grigor Dimitrov            45.1%  13.6%   7.9%     0.0%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                40.7%  26.7%   7.7%     0.0%  
Denis Istomin              59.3%  43.7%  16.0%     0.1%  
(31)Juan Ignacio Chela    100.0%  29.6%   5.2%     0.0%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(19)Fernando Verdasco     100.0%  62.3%  23.1%     0.4%  
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe        56.1%  22.5%   6.5%     0.0%  
Ryan Sweeting              43.9%  15.2%   3.8%     0.0%  
Qualifier10                50.1%   7.9%   2.7%     0.0%  
Qualifier11                49.9%   7.9%   2.7%     0.0%  
(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  100.0%  84.2%  61.3%     6.3%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(14)Gael Monfils          100.0%  72.9%  51.1%     2.8%  
Nikolay Davydenko          65.9%  20.6%  10.7%     0.1%  
Qualifier12                34.1%   6.5%   2.4%     0.0%  
Lukas Rosol                42.2%  13.4%   3.2%     0.0%  
Thomaz Bellucci            57.8%  22.6%   6.9%     0.0%  
(20)Jurgen Melzer         100.0%  64.0%  25.6%     0.3%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(27)Milos Raonic          100.0%  74.4%  28.2%     1.0%  
Carlos Berlocq             26.0%   3.4%   0.3%     0.0%  
Benoit Paire               74.0%  22.2%   4.9%     0.0%  
Dmitry Tursunov            49.9%   8.4%   3.0%     0.0%  
(WC)Denis Kudla            50.1%   8.3%   3.0%     0.0%  
(3)Roger Federer          100.0%  83.4%  60.7%     8.7%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     100.0%  71.2%  56.0%     4.6%  
Michael Llodra             46.4%  12.6%   7.4%     0.1%  
Ernests Gulbis             53.6%  16.1%   9.9%     0.1%  
Xavier Malisse             56.9%  27.0%   7.2%     0.0%  
Qualifier13                43.1%  17.4%   3.7%     0.0%  
(28)Radek Stepanek        100.0%  55.6%  15.8%     0.1%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(24)Marin Cilic           100.0%  60.1%  30.6%     0.9%  
Potito Starac              17.1%   2.5%   0.4%     0.0%  
David Nalbandian           82.9%  37.4%  17.3%     0.3%  
Bernard Tomic              74.2%  38.0%  20.7%     0.7%  
Gilles Muller              25.8%   7.0%   2.1%     0.0%  
(10)Janko Tipsarevic      100.0%  55.0%  29.1%     0.9%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(15)Feliciano Lopez       100.0%  47.8%  24.2%     0.3%  
Jeremy Chardy              36.0%  15.5%   6.8%     0.0%  
Marcos Baghdatis           64.0%  36.7%  21.2%     0.6%  
Donald Young               54.1%  21.5%   9.0%     0.1%  
Steve Darcis               45.9%  16.6%   6.2%     0.0%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov   100.0%  61.9%  32.5%     0.7%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(26)Marcel Granollers     100.0%  67.6%  20.2%     0.6%  
Jarkko Nieminen            85.5%  31.1%   6.5%     0.0%  
Tommy Haas                 14.5%   1.3%   0.1%     0.0%  
Alejandro Falla            68.3%  10.0%   3.9%     0.0%  
Leonardo Mayer             31.7%   2.4%   0.5%     0.0%  
(2)Rafael Nadal           100.0%  87.7%  68.8%    13.2%

(For those eagle-eyed readers, qualifiers don’t all have identical chances against each other because I’m running a Monte Carlo simulation, running the bracket 100,000 times. This method occasionally results in slight errors, or tiny changes from one simulation to the next.)

About these ads

6 Comments

Filed under Forecasting, Indian Wells

6 responses to “2012 Indian Wells Draw Predictions

  1. Tom Welsh

    I’m interested that your system gave Benoit Paire a 74% chance of beating Carlos Berlocq (unless I’m misreading the figures). The actual result – Berlocq won 6-4 6-4 – seems reasonable to me, given that Berlocq is so much higher in the ATP rankings.

    I think it was in Miami last year that Berlocq gave Berdych a good match, for the first set at least. He’s easy to underestimate.

    • Berlocq is tricky, since the vast majority of his matches, and the even vaster majority of his victories, have been on clay. (Career 7-21 on hard, though it’s been better more recently.) My system gives some credit across surfaces, but the different is due to the fact that Paire wins on hard courts (albeit infrequently).

  2. Tom Welsh

    Deaf, dumb, and blind! Berlocq won 6-4 6-2 of course.

    I don’t suppose he has much chance of beating Raonic, but I am sure he will give it a try. He lost to Berdych, in the end, but the score was 7-6(8) 7-5, so not all that one-sided. And that was on a hard court, of course.

  3. Joris van Claassen

    Berlocq is exactly the type of player that could cause Milos Raonic some problems, especially with the speed of the surface being even slower (so I’ve heard) this year.

    Do your projections take into account ‘home-court advantage’? While I’m sure it’s not a major factor, I’m pretty sure it swings tight match-ups involving Americans in their favour more or less (such as Sweeting-Stebe, Kudla-Kamke, etc.)

    • Yep, they do account for home court. It’s a modest effect — i think just a few percent. It seems much larger (US players winning much more in the US, etc) but much of the effect is actually surface preference, so once you account for surface, the home-court effect is minor.

  4. jw

    it is very surprised that Murry was kicked out in the round of 64…

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s