Wimbledon Women’s Draw Predictions

The women’s field is more tightly packed than the men’s, especially with Kim Clijsters out of action.  As such, my algorithm gives only Caroline Wozniacki and Victoria Azarenka better than a 10-to-1 shot of winning Wimbledon.  Serena and Venus Williams, of course, are wild cards–it’s easy to see Serena winning it all, or crashing out early from injury or rust.

Here is the full draw breakdown:

Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Caroline Wozniacki           94.0%  77.1%  65.9%    15.03%  
Arantxa Parra Santonja        6.0%   1.5%   0.5%     0.00%  
Sania Mirza                  26.0%   3.1%   1.2%     0.00%  
Virginie Razzano             74.0%  18.2%  11.3%     0.30%  
Anastasia Rodionova          58.4%  19.4%   3.0%     0.01%  
Andrea Hlavackova            41.6%  10.9%   1.3%     0.00%  
Alona Bondarenko             50.3%  35.2%   8.7%     0.11%  
Jarmila Gajdosova            49.7%  34.4%   8.3%     0.11%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Dominika Cibulkova           85.6%  64.5%  43.8%     1.98%  
Mirjana Lucic                14.4%   4.8%   1.4%     0.00%  
Polona Hercog                53.6%  17.0%   7.8%     0.03%  
Johanna Larsson              46.4%  13.6%   5.8%     0.01%  
Mathilde Johansson           39.1%   8.0%   1.5%     0.00%  
Heather Watson               60.9%  17.3%   4.4%     0.01%  
Anabel Medina Garrigues      26.3%  15.6%   4.6%     0.01%  
Julia Goerges                73.7%  59.0%  30.7%     0.66%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Samantha Stosur              81.6%  65.4%  38.3%     2.17%  
Melinda Czink                18.4%   8.8%   2.4%     0.00%  
Anastasiya Yakimova          48.5%  12.2%   3.5%     0.00%  
Sofia Arvidsson              51.5%  13.6%   4.0%     0.01%  
Elena Baltacha               64.2%  18.4%   6.6%     0.02%  
Mona Barthel                 35.8%   6.8%   1.6%     0.00%  
Kirsten Flipkens             21.2%  11.2%   3.8%     0.02%  
Shuai Peng                   78.9%  63.6%  39.9%     2.70%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Lucie Safarova               69.1%  42.3%  18.7%     0.44%  
Lucie Hradecka               30.9%  13.1%   3.7%     0.01%  
Klara Zakopalova             81.7%  41.1%  16.1%     0.23%  
Emily Webley-Smith           18.3%   3.5%   0.5%     0.00%  
Angelique Kerber             64.6%  15.7%   6.1%     0.02%  
Laura Robson                 35.4%   5.2%   1.4%     0.00%  
Anna Chakvetadze             25.1%  16.2%   7.8%     0.08%  
Maria Sharapova              74.9%  62.9%  45.7%     4.54%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Na Li                        84.1%  60.8%  46.2%     5.66%  
Alla Kudryavtseva            15.9%   5.2%   2.0%     0.00%  
Sabine Lisicki               54.1%  19.2%  10.9%     0.24%  
Anastasija Sevastova         45.9%  14.7%   7.7%     0.11%  
Jie Zheng                    86.6%  51.9%  18.9%     0.31%  
Zuzana Ondraskova            13.4%   2.8%   0.3%     0.00%  
Misaki Doi                   22.1%   5.5%   0.7%     0.00%  
Bethanie Mattek-Sands        77.9%  39.9%  13.3%     0.15%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Ana Ivanovic                 68.6%  55.8%  33.6%     1.87%  
Melanie Oudin                31.4%  20.8%   8.8%     0.07%  
Coco Vandeweghe              53.5%  13.1%   4.0%     0.01%  
Eleni Daniilidou             46.5%  10.3%   2.9%     0.00%  
Kristina Barrois             64.9%  17.2%   5.5%     0.01%  
Petra Cetkovska              35.1%   6.1%   1.3%     0.00%  
Olga Govortsova              20.2%  11.1%   3.4%     0.01%  
Agnieszka Radwanska          79.8%  65.7%  40.5%     2.34%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Marion Bartoli               88.5%  78.3%  47.8%     3.02%  
Kristyna Pliskova            11.5%   5.6%   1.1%     0.00%  
Lourdes Dominguez Lino       45.7%   6.9%   1.4%     0.00%  
Romina Oprandi               54.3%   9.2%   2.0%     0.00%  
Evgeniya Rodina              51.2%  11.3%   2.7%     0.00%  
Chanelle Scheepers           48.8%  10.1%   2.4%     0.00%  
Irina-Camelia Begu           14.5%   6.8%   1.5%     0.00%  
Flavia Pennetta              85.5%  71.8%  41.1%     2.36%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Maria Kirilenko              79.4%  57.5%  24.8%     0.61%  
Alberta Brianti              20.6%   8.4%   1.6%     0.00%  
Tamarine Tanasugarn          39.8%  11.5%   2.2%     0.00%  
Yaroslava Shvedova           60.2%  22.6%   6.0%     0.01%  
Simona Halep                 48.7%  11.6%   5.1%     0.02%  
Bojana Jovanovski            51.3%  12.7%   5.9%     0.04%  
Aravane Rezai                25.1%  14.9%   7.9%     0.09%  
Serena Williams              74.9%  60.8%  46.4%     5.54%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Francesca Schiavone          70.3%  49.3%  30.5%     0.96%  
Jelena Dokic                 29.7%  14.8%   6.1%     0.03%  
Barbora Zahlavova Strycova   57.8%  22.5%  10.0%     0.05%  
Aleksandra Wozniak           42.2%  13.4%   5.0%     0.01%  
Ayumi Morita                 44.0%  14.7%   5.2%     0.01%  
Tamira Paszek                56.0%  21.7%   9.0%     0.04%  
Christina McHale             31.1%  15.8%   6.2%     0.02%  
Ekaterina Makarova           68.9%  47.9%  27.9%     0.70%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Shahar Peer                  77.8%  58.9%  30.1%     1.15%  
Ksenia Pervak                22.2%  10.6%   2.7%     0.00%  
Sorana Cirstea               65.7%  22.9%   7.3%     0.03%  
Pauline Parmentier           34.3%   7.6%   1.5%     0.00%  
Irina Falconi                56.0%  10.1%   2.7%     0.00%  
Stephanie Dubois             44.0%   7.1%   1.8%     0.00%  
Stephanie Foretz Gacon       11.8%   5.7%   1.5%     0.00%  
Andrea Petkovic              88.2%  77.2%  52.4%     4.11%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova     86.2%  59.1%  38.5%     2.28%  
Lesia Tsurenko               13.8%   3.8%   0.9%     0.00%  
Vesna Dolonts                26.3%   6.0%   1.7%     0.00%  
Nadia Petrova                73.7%  31.1%  16.2%     0.32%  
Kateryna Bondarenko          53.7%  24.2%   9.5%     0.12%  
Alize Cornet                 46.3%  19.3%   7.2%     0.07%  
Sara Errani                  35.3%  16.6%   5.9%     0.05%  
Kaia Kanepi                  64.7%  40.0%  20.1%     0.62%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Daniela Hantuchova           86.5%  70.1%  28.5%     1.40%  
Vitalia Diatchenko           13.5%   5.4%   0.6%     0.00%  
Kai-Chen Chang               56.0%  14.7%   2.6%     0.01%  
Marina Erakovic              44.0%   9.8%   1.4%     0.00%  
Sandra Zahlavova             26.6%   2.8%   0.7%     0.00%  
Iveta Benesova               73.4%  17.3%   7.9%     0.10%  
Magdalena Rybarikova         16.6%   9.0%   3.9%     0.04%  
Victoria Azarenka            83.4%  70.8%  54.5%    10.87%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Petra Kvitova                89.6%  79.6%  63.3%     7.16%  
Alexa Glatch                 10.4%   5.0%   1.6%     0.00%  
Naomi Broady                 38.9%   4.8%   1.3%     0.00%  
Anne Keothavong              61.1%  10.6%   3.9%     0.01%  
Rebecca Marino               66.9%  22.5%   5.2%     0.01%  
Patricia Mayr-Achleitner     33.1%   6.6%   0.9%     0.00%  
Vera Dushevina               47.6%  33.4%  10.8%     0.11%  
Roberta Vinci                52.4%  37.5%  12.9%     0.17%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Yanina Wickmayer             80.9%  66.9%  34.8%     1.28%  
Varvara Lepchenko            19.1%  10.1%   2.4%     0.00%  
Anastasia Pivovarova         49.0%  10.9%   2.3%     0.00%  
Anna Tatishvili              51.0%  12.0%   2.6%     0.00%  
Jill Craybas                 27.7%   4.4%   1.1%     0.00%  
Alexandra Dulgheru           72.3%  21.4%   8.9%     0.05%  
Shuai Zhang                  14.7%   6.2%   1.9%     0.00%  
Svetlana Kuznetsova          85.3%  68.0%  46.1%     3.25%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Jelena Jankovic              58.7%  44.3%  24.0%     0.97%  
Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez  41.3%  28.3%  13.0%     0.27%  
Monica Niculescu             48.4%  12.9%   3.7%     0.01%  
Sybille Bammer               51.6%  14.6%   4.5%     0.01%  
Katie O'Brien                26.3%   3.8%   0.7%     0.00%  
Kimiko Date-Krumm            73.7%  22.1%   8.4%     0.04%  
Akgul Amanmuradova           14.9%   6.4%   1.6%     0.00%  
Venus Williams               85.1%  67.7%  44.0%     2.94%  
                                                            
Player                         R64    R32    R16         W  
Tsvetana Pironkova           75.0%  41.3%  10.3%     0.08%  
Camila Giorgi                25.0%   7.4%   0.8%     0.00%  
Vania King                   54.9%  29.4%   6.6%     0.02%  
Petra Martic                 45.1%  22.0%   4.3%     0.01%  
Elena Vesnina                84.3%  26.9%  18.2%     0.48%  
Laura Pous-Tio               15.7%   1.5%   0.4%     0.00%  
Alison Riske                 10.4%   3.1%   1.3%     0.00%  
Vera Zvonareva               89.6%  68.4%  58.0%     9.23%
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2 Comments

Filed under Forecasting, Wimbledon, WTA

2 responses to “Wimbledon Women’s Draw Predictions

  1. Pingback: Live Wimbledon Odds | Heavy Topspin: A Tennis Blog

  2. Pingback: US Open Women’s Draw Predictions | Heavy Topspin: A Tennis Blog

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