French Open Predictions

The qualifying rounds are over, and the draw is set.  I plugged the full 128-man bracket into my simulator, combined it with my most recent clay-specific rankings, and the full results are below.

A few quick hits on the draw and the simulation results:

  • All of the top three players have challenging draws.  Nadal faces Isner in the first, then possibly Davydenko in the third, Verdasco in the 4th, and Soderling in the quarters.  Federer drew Feliciano Lopez in the first.  And Djokovic got the worst possible outcome: Del Potro in the third.  There probably isn’t an upset there, but if anybody’s going to take Novak out before the final, Delpo’s my bet.
  • There are eight Americans in the draw.  The odds that a US player–any US player–wins the tourney is 0.83%.  The odds that all eight are knocked out in the first round?  0.85%.  Only Fish and Sweeting are favorites in their opening matches.
  • On the country-by-country theme, France has 20 men in the main draw, with a likelihood of just under 4% that a Frenchmen will win the title.  Spain has 14, for a total title shot of 26.4% — just below Djokovic’s chances by himself.
  • Some tight matchups in the first round: Fognini/Istomin, Hewitt/Montanes, Brands/Kukushkin, Paire/Hanescu (home court advantage flips that in Paire’s favor), Teixeira/Millot (two wild cards), Tomic/Berlocq, Gimeno-Traver/Haase, and Tursunov/Malisse.
  • The most lopsided first-rounder–according to the numbers–is Djokovic vs. de Bakker, followed by Andy Murray vs. Eric Prodon, the only two where my system gives the favorite a 90% chance of advancing.  There are plenty in the high 80′s, as well.

Here are the full simulation results:

Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(1)Rafael Nadal             87.5%  81.4%  67.3%  …  21.30%  
John Isner                  12.5%   8.3%   4.2%  …   0.05%  
Santiago Giraldo            60.4%   6.9%   2.6%  …   0.01%  
Pablo Andujar               39.6%   3.5%   1.0%  …   0.00%  
Pablo Cuevas                67.0%  25.0%   4.0%  …   0.02%  
(q)Antonio Veic             33.0%   7.8%   0.7%  …   0.00%  
(q)Denis Gremelmayr         14.6%   4.8%   0.4%  …   0.00%  
(28)Nikolay Davydenko       85.4%  62.3%  19.8%  …   0.72%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(24)Sam Querrey             42.6%  20.5%   9.1%  …   0.04%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber       57.4%  31.2%  15.7%  …   0.13%  
Ivan Ljubicic               72.0%  39.5%  20.6%  …   0.20%  
Somdev Devvarman            28.0%   8.8%   2.8%  …   0.00%  
Dmitry Tursunov             44.9%  12.1%   4.1%  …   0.00%  
Xavier Malisse              55.1%  16.4%   5.9%  …   0.01%  
Juan Monaco                 34.7%  21.0%   9.7%  …   0.04%  
(16)Fernando Verdasco       65.3%  50.4%  32.1%  …   0.77%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(10)Mardy Fish              82.3%  59.3%  36.6%  …   0.70%  
Ricardo Mello               17.7%   6.5%   1.7%  …   0.00%  
Daniel Gimeno-Traver        47.9%  16.1%   6.2%  …   0.01%  
Robin Haase                 52.1%  18.1%   7.2%  …   0.02%  
Jeremy Chardy               52.5%  21.7%   9.1%  …   0.03%  
Grigor Dimitrov             47.5%  17.9%   7.2%  …   0.02%  
Michael Russell             16.0%   4.5%   1.0%  …   0.00%  
(18)Gilles Simon            84.0%  55.9%  31.0%  …   0.41%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(27)Marcos Baghdatis        71.6%  51.3%  20.0%  …   0.36%  
Frederico Gil               28.4%  14.1%   3.0%  …   0.00%  
(q)Leonardo Mayer           58.4%  22.3%   5.0%  …   0.01%  
Dustin Brown                41.6%  12.3%   2.2%  …   0.00%  
(q)Albert Ramos             77.0%  10.8%   3.5%  …   0.00%  
(q)Javier Marti             23.0%   1.2%   0.1%  …   0.00%  
Benjamin Becker             10.4%   6.1%   2.1%  …   0.00%  
(5)Robin Soderling          89.6%  81.9%  64.0%  …   5.86%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(4)Andy Murray              91.0%  82.1%  60.3%  …   7.11%  
(q)Eric Prodon               9.0%   4.3%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(LL)Simon Bolelli           58.1%   8.6%   2.6%  …   0.01%  
(q)Frank Dancevic           41.9%   5.0%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Arnaud Clement          46.8%   9.2%   1.3%  …   0.00%  
Filippo Volandri            53.2%  12.0%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
Michael Berrer              19.2%  10.6%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
(26)Milos Raonic            80.8%  68.2%  29.4%  …   1.17%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov     80.2%  48.8%  26.6%  …   0.14%  
Rainer Schuettler           19.8%   5.6%   1.4%  …   0.00%  
Andreas Haider-Maurer       41.1%  16.6%   6.4%  …   0.00%  
Ryan Sweeting               58.9%  29.0%  13.7%  …   0.03%  
Tobias Kamke                39.2%  12.9%   4.8%  …   0.00%  
Olivier Rochus              60.8%  24.4%  11.5%  …   0.02%  
Julian Reister              27.6%  12.5%   4.7%  …   0.00%  
(15)Viktor Troicki          72.4%  50.1%  30.7%  …   0.22%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(11)Nicolas Almagro         82.4%  66.6%  46.5%  …   1.30%  
(q)Lukasz Kubot             17.6%   8.5%   3.0%  …   0.00%  
Carlos Berlocq              48.2%  11.6%   4.0%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Bernard Tomic           51.8%  13.3%   5.0%  …   0.00%  
Potito Starace              55.8%  19.8%   6.4%  …   0.01%  
(q)Alejandro Falla          44.2%  13.4%   3.7%  …   0.00%  
Igor Kunitsyn               20.4%   8.3%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
(20)Florian Mayer           79.6%  58.5%  29.4%  …   0.36%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(32)Kevin Anderson          61.3%  34.3%  11.4%  …   0.02%  
Nicolas Mahut               38.7%  16.5%   4.0%  …   0.00%  
Juan Ignacio Chela          62.6%  33.8%  11.5%  …   0.02%  
(WC)Tim Smyczek             37.4%  15.3%   3.7%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Edouard Roger-Vasselin  54.4%  12.8%   6.0%  …   0.00%  
(q)Lukas Rosol              45.6%   9.4%   4.0%  …   0.00%  
(LL)Andreas Beck            15.2%   7.6%   3.3%  …   0.00%  
(8)Jurgen Melzer            84.8%  70.2%  56.0%  …   2.09%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(7)David Ferrer             81.2%  65.7%  47.5%  …   2.54%  
Jarkko Nieminen             18.8%   9.9%   3.8%  …   0.00%  
Julien Benneteau            64.9%  18.2%   8.1%  …   0.03%  
Rui Machado                 35.1%   6.3%   1.8%  …   0.00%  
Kei Nishikori               78.9%  57.6%  27.6%  …   0.43%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                 21.1%   9.2%   1.9%  …   0.00%  
(q)David Guez               32.2%   7.6%   1.4%  …   0.00%  
(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky       67.8%  25.6%   7.9%  …   0.01%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(22)Michael Llodra          73.5%  42.4%  17.7%  …   0.09%  
(q)Steve Darcis             26.5%   9.0%   2.0%  …   0.00%  
Philipp Petzschner          64.0%  34.4%  13.3%  …   0.03%  
Mischa Zverev               36.0%  14.2%   4.1%  …   0.01%  
Adrian Mannarino            56.9%  15.3%   6.6%  …   0.01%  
(WC)Guillaume Rufin         43.1%   9.6%   3.5%  …   0.00%  
(q)Bjorn Phau               12.1%   4.4%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(9)Gael Monfils             87.9%  70.6%  51.6%  …   1.45%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka      85.8%  66.1%  40.1%  …   0.83%  
(q)Augustin Gensse          14.2%   5.2%   1.2%  …   0.00%  
(q)Thomas Schoorel          55.6%  17.0%   6.2%  …   0.01%  
Maximo Gonzalez             44.4%  11.7%   3.8%  …   0.00%  
Florent Serra               37.4%   8.4%   2.2%  …   0.00%  
Igor Andreev                62.6%  19.4%   6.4%  …   0.01%  
Jan Hajek                   18.2%   8.4%   2.3%  …   0.00%  
(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      81.8%  63.7%  37.8%  …   0.78%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(29)Janko Tipsarevic        75.9%  46.3%  13.2%  …   0.11%  
Brian Dabul                 24.1%   8.1%   1.0%  …   0.00%  
Ivan Dodig                  61.9%  31.2%   7.7%  …   0.06%  
Pere Riba                   38.1%  14.4%   2.3%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Vincent Millot          46.5%   4.6%   1.5%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Maxime Teixeira         53.5%   6.1%   2.2%  …   0.00%  
Feliciano Lopez             23.4%  18.6%  11.9%  …   0.27%  
(3)Roger Federer            76.6%  70.7%  60.2%  …   9.85%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(6)Tomas Berdych            87.7%  68.0%  51.2%  …   1.58%  
(q)Stephane Robert          12.3%   3.9%   1.3%  …   0.00%  
Fabio Fognini               50.9%  15.1%   7.1%  …   0.01%  
Denis Istomin               49.1%  13.1%   6.3%  …   0.01%  
Tommy Haas                  26.8%   5.3%   0.7%  …   0.00%  
(LL)Marsel Ilhan            73.2%  28.1%   7.4%  …   0.00%  
Robert Kendrick             22.6%   9.9%   1.9%  …   0.00%  
(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  77.4%  56.7%  24.1%  …   0.13%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(19)Marin Cilic             88.4%  61.4%  42.6%  …   0.93%  
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo       11.6%   2.7%   0.7%  …   0.00%  
Lleyton Hewitt              45.7%  14.7%   7.4%  …   0.03%  
Albert Montanes             54.3%  21.1%  11.2%  …   0.04%  
Daniel Brands               47.0%  15.8%   4.1%  …   0.00%  
Mikhail Kukushkin           53.0%  20.0%   5.7%  …   0.01%  
Go Soeda                    18.7%   6.8%   1.3%  …   0.00%  
(12)Mikhail Youzhny         81.3%  57.3%  26.9%  …   0.19%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(13)Richard Gasquet         69.1%  56.4%  40.9%  …   1.08%  
Radek Stepanek              30.9%  20.3%  10.8%  …   0.05%  
(LL)Alex Bogomolov Jr.      42.8%   8.7%   3.0%  …   0.00%  
Marcel Granollers           57.2%  14.6%   6.0%  …   0.00%  
Teymuraz Gabashvili         44.6%  12.8%   3.3%  …   0.00%  
Andreas Seppi               55.4%  20.6%   6.5%  …   0.01%  
Andrey Golubev              34.5%  20.1%   7.0%  …   0.01%  
(23)Thomaz Bellucci         65.5%  46.5%  22.5%  …   0.17%  
                                                            
Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  
(25)Juan Martin Del Potro   89.0%  72.9%  30.1%  …   8.40%  
Ivo Karlovic                11.0%   3.5%   0.4%  …   0.00%  
Ernests Gulbis              80.2%  21.5%   4.5%  …   0.20%  
Blaz Kavcic                 19.8%   2.0%   0.1%  …   0.00%  
(WC)Benoit Paire            51.7%   3.7%   0.5%  …   0.00%  
Victor Hanescu              48.3%   3.2%   0.4%  …   0.00%  
Thiemo De Bakker             6.3%   3.6%   0.6%  …   0.00%  
(2)Novak Djokovic           93.7%  89.5%  63.3%  …  27.42%
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Filed under Forecasting, French Open

One response to “French Open Predictions

  1. Pingback: Winners and Losers in the French Open Draw | Heavy Topspin: A Tennis Blog

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